Unveiling India’s Strategic Windfall - Leveraging Russia-Ukraine War For Economic And Energy Gains

Author: LawSphereX

Category: International Law

Published: 2026-08-23T21:40:20.191+00:00

Updated: 2026-08-30T07:06:00.096Z

UNVEILING INDIA’S STRATEGIC WINDFALL:

LEVERAGING RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR FOR ECONOMIC AND ENERGY GAINS Aman Raj, Symbiosis Law School, Nagpur Maniyar Shaik Sharika Taskeen, Symbiosis Law School, Nagpur Introduction ‘War’ in the recent past has been the new norm for various developed countries to create deterrence in the minds of other prominent nations. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reverberated across the globe, reshaping geopolitical dynamics and disrupting commercial landscapes. This paper deals with India (Indian industrialist), which has emerged as a significant player, leveraging the turmoil in the global energy market to its advantage. India and Russia have made an illegal arrangement to deal with sanctioning the United Kingdom and the United States of America.

Russia-Ukraine war and its global impact Ukraine -Russia has been the top headlines from the past 2 years where the rights of a country's sovereignty have gone for a toss. Russia has been using its power to cripple the existence of Ukraine from the world map unofficially. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction, and this reaction comes from the strongest countries (Western countries). The global commercial landscape has been significantly affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has suffered more significant harm than Russia. This conflict has led to disruption in the trade route, mainly to commodities like base metal, mineral oils, and agricultural products. Ukraine's primary means of livelihood is exporting commodities through ships, and Russia has faced economic sanctions that impede its participation in global markets.

Imports from Ukraine have significantly declined, while Russia has gained particularly in mineral exports to Asian countries. Overall, the countries globally are directly and indirectly impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For example, Turkey, one of the significant countries directly reliant on Ukraine for the wheat supply, was affected whose cry could be heard in the global market. Regarding numbers then, Ukraine was 47. 3 lower between February and August 2022. However, it cannot be asserted that Russia is totally in a monetary equilibrium of trade and sorts as it has to bear the wrath of the Western powers in the guise of trade sanctions and embargo as a result of its actions of aggression against Ukraine, which has inflicted the interests of the “Big NATO”.

Russia as a major producer and its impact on Russia In 2019, before the war, Russia exported 267 million tons of crude oil instead of 2022, whereas only 260 million tons were directly exported as crude oil. Considering the smart move from Russia to sell its oil to third-world countries, replacing the reliance on Western countries. There was a considerable dip in the export of crude oil because of the ban by the European Union and the USA. Two significant issues also come into the picture when we look at the maritime transportation and insurance services which the Western nation has provided throughout these years regarding the current contention; the dip can be directly seen below: In the very first figure, EU trade has declined to a considerable amount where both the imports and exports have been declining from the very inception.

Sanctions imposed on oil by the EU on Russia In June 2022, the Council of the European Union adopted the sixth package for sanctions, which includes prohibitions on imports and transfer of seaborne crude oil from Russia to any European country. On 5th February 2023, restrictions like purchasing direct petroleum products are also banned. European Union claims that most of the oil comes from seaborne; these restrictions will cover nearly 90% of oil imports to Europe by the end of 2023. The list of the banned products is designed to maximise the negative impacts of the sanctions on Russia and its economy to curtail the source of funds for mass destruction. The product list is extensive and includes transport, oil price caps, oil bans, aviation and space industry restrictions, maritime navigation goods and radio communication, luxury goods, etc.

By the end of 2023, the United Kingdom and the United States of America had cut off most of the imports and exports from Russia, most notably the crude oil directly sold to them in hundreds of barrels daily. Two countries that stand out to be the most profitable among the rest are India and China and India arrived in the picture after the EU banned imports or exports of oil products Major world powers have almost boycotted Russia's products. Still, on the flip side of the coin, two of the most prominent emerging world powers in the 21st century have been taking advantage of the war situation in Russia and Ukraine. This act of taking sides with the enemy country is catching the eye and is a matter of concern for India regarding its long-term relationship with other Western countries.

Although India has maintained the diplomatic balance, it has continued to purchase Russian oil and try to foster relationships with Western nations. The two primary reasons India wants support from Russia are buying oil at a discount rate of 40% compared to the international price and historically when Russia helped India with terms of ammunition in the 1970s war against China and Pakistan. According to the Finlandbased Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the imports of oil between India and Russia have increased tremendously, as can be seen in the following figure, where we can directly find the two countries have replaced the primary seller of oil which the US and UK previously did. The most surprising figures came on the 24th of February early this year when Russia became the third-biggest supplier in terms of crude oil.

India has an advantage as it buys cheap oil for its refineries, owned by prominent industrialists.

Opportunity for India in the phase of turmoil With this war, India has gained the most, as recently, it has become one of Russia's favourites in the international market. Russia is selling the oil through the Red Sea, which is the usual route for them to sell it on a large scale. The increased number can be seen in the following figure, where there is an exponential increase in the number of exports by Russia to India within the span of two years. Nearly half of Russia's economy is run on revenue, which comes directly from oil. It becomes crucial for Russia to sell oil on a large scale to other countries to sustain itself as an economy. Recently, the EU has imposed very harassing sanctions, which are not acting in favour of Russia economically.

One more problem that arises from the perspective of Russia is the issue of transportation and insurance services, which have been provided by Western countries exclusively for past decades. 1 India is creating a market with Russia, which benefits both countries internationally. India is buying 10 times more oil than it did before the war. Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics said India paid 20 billion dollars in just seven months, more than in the past decade. India's benefits are still being debated, but the benefits for Indian industrialists are pretty specific. Indian industrialists or business tycoons are the ones who are buying nearly threequarters of cheap Russian oil. These companies buy cheap oil, refine it, and sell it to European nations.

Matt Smith Kpler’s lead analyst recently showed that the European Union imported refined products from India surged by 115% from 111,000 barrels per day to 231,800 barrels per day in 2023. This loop is very obvious in the international market, and the ones who have imposed sanctions on the oil supply from Russia are suffering more than Russia itself. Even though Indian industrialists are getting benefits, the Indian economy is also benefitting. The mechanism by which India is taking crude oil from Russia Recently, an article was published in Singapore, where America imposed sanctions on Sovomflot, a Russian state-owned shipping firm, for carrying around 15% of Russian oil exports to India. Immediately, Indian Importers stopped taking shipments from Sovcomflot tankers.

Exporters created an alternative means of transport to India, which could probably be through shadow fleets, which helps avoid sanctions. The shadow fleets are a response by Russian authorities or businessmen to the sanctions imposed by America against the export ban and oil price caps. This shadow fleet has created booming markets for tanks that are old or do not have insurance. This pattern is very common right now because these ships are not insured or do not have legitimate papers and could not be held liable for any breach because there might be the question of jurisdictions on international waters. This breach is very common nowadays because the U. S. Treasury Department has sent notices to ship management companies for about 100 vessels suspected of carrying illegal crude oil going against the sanctions on Russia.

2 To decipher this equation, which involves a complex network of activities to circumvent international regulations and sanctions imposed on all Western nations, Russia appears to be utilizing old tankers registered at various Eastern or Western European coastal regions. These tankers may be operated under the guise of shell companies with parent shell companies that lack registration in any relevant jurisdiction or are registered in a jurisdiction with minimal oversight. Once these shell companies are established, they are allegedly used to facilitate illegal activities, including transporting goods or conducting activities that contravene the sanctions imposed on countries promoting war. The names of these shell companies cannot be found anywhere because such shell companies are nonexistence.

To avoid detection and interception, these activities are purposefully carried out on routes unfamiliar enough for Western countries to monitor on a large scale. Although these activities have their own limitations, Russia has been smart enough to sustain its growth and replace its buyers on an international level, illegally evading detection and legal repercussions.

CONCLUSION

In the Indian context, the influence on global oil markets will increase exponentially. The IEA expects India to be the single largest source of growth in global demand between 2023 and

2030 (estimated to be more). Urbanisation in India will demand more energy, and seeing the

current situation, India will need more energy than ever. Also, Indian oil reserves are declining and are at their lowest, accounting for about 13%. It is also essential to ask who in India is getting the most benefit, whether the government or private refiners. The answer is simple: the private refiners. The notion of India taking advantage is debatable, particularly considering the prevailing high petrol prices within the country, which currently stand at 102 rupees per litre. Despite these high fuel costs, India’s economy continues to grow, suggesting that it may be strategically positioned to benefit from engaging in direct business with Russia and maintaining diplomatic relations with Western countries.

Overall, the question of whether India is truly taking advantage of the situation is open to interpretation, with various factors acting simultaneously on the international front and engaging more in the international community.

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